China 2025 Birth Rate Record Low: Sliding Below 9 Million

The psychological floor has cracked. China's annual births likely fell below the 9 million mark for the first time in 2025. It's a grim milestone that underscores the deepening demographic crisis facing the world's second-largest economy a decade after it scrapped the one-child policy.

China 2025 Birth Rate Record Low and Its Global Impact

According to expert forecasts reported by Nikkei, the decline is driven by a toxic combination of fewer marriages and worsening job prospects for young people. As the economy loses momentum, the cost of living in urban centers remains stubbornly high, making the prospect of childbearing a luxury many can't afford. This demographic shift isn't just a domestic issue; it's a signal of long-term labor shortages that could disrupt global trade.

Subsidy Push Meets Fiscal Reality

Beijing hasn't been idle. Authorities recently unveiled an annual $500 child subsidy to help buoy birth rates. Provinces are trying everything from extended marriage leave to opening marriage-themed parks. However, these measures face significant headwinds. With local government debt mounting, the scale of financial incentives may not be enough to counter the profound cultural shift toward smaller families or child-free lifestyles.