BRICS Naval Drill Exposes Cracks in Anti-Western Alliance

Nine out of ten members showed up, but the one that didn't was this year's chair and a founding member. India's absence from BRICS' first-ever military exercise, "Will for Peace 2026," reveals the fundamental tensions within what many see as the West's primary geopolitical challenger.

From Economics to Warfare: BRICS' Bold New Direction

For 25 years, BRICS has been purely an economic and diplomatic forum. That changed from January 9-16, when naval forces from China, Russia, Iran, the UAE, and South Africa conducted joint maritime operations off Simon's Town, South Africa. The location wasn't accidental—this Indo-Atlantic crossroads represents one of the world's most strategic maritime chokepoints.

China led the exercise while South Africa hosted, bringing together what organizers described as "joint actions to ensure the safety of key shipping lanes and maritime economic activities." But this wasn't just about piracy prevention. The drill marked BRICS' first foray into security cooperation, signaling ambitions to create an alternative to Western-dominated defense arrangements.

The timing coincides with BRICS' expansion from five to ten members in 2024-25, adding Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the UAE. This enlarged coalition now represents roughly 40% of global population and 25% of world GDP, making it a formidable counterweight to Western influence.

Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, and Ethiopia participated as observers, suggesting cautious interest in military cooperation without full commitment.

India's Strategic Calculation

India's no-show was particularly striking given its role as BRICS' 2026 chair, having just taken over from Brazil. New Delhi's Ministry of External Affairs quickly distanced itself, calling the exercise "entirely a South African initiative" rather than an official BRICS activity.

The real reasons run deeper. India and China aren't just economic competitors—they're locked in an ongoing border dispute and broader struggle for regional dominance. Participating in a China-led military exercise would essentially legitimize Beijing's leadership within BRICS security architecture, something New Delhi clearly isn't prepared to do.

External pressure also shaped India's decision. Donald Trump has explicitly labeled BRICS as "anti-American" and accused the group of trying to undermine the dollar. With US-India relations already strained over various issues, New Delhi likely calculated that joining a military exercise with Russia and Iran would unnecessarily provoke Washington.

The calculation proved prescient. The US heavily criticized South Africa for hosting Iranian naval vessels, leading to a South African government inquiry and reports that the president had ordered Iran not to participate.

The Limits of Multipolarity

The exercise demonstrates both BRICS' potential and its constraints. On one hand, nine countries coordinating maritime security operations represents a significant alternative to Western-led arrangements. The group now spans multiple continents and includes major regional powers, creating possibilities for South-South security cooperation.

The economic foundation is solid. BRICS members have been pushing for alternatives to Western-dominated institutions like the World Bank and IMF, with some success through initiatives like the New Development Bank. Extending this logic to security cooperation makes strategic sense.

But the China-India rivalry remains the elephant in the room. These two countries represent BRICS' largest economies and populations. Their competition isn't just bilateral—it reflects broader questions about Asian leadership and the nature of the emerging multipolar order.

India's absence also highlights the challenge of building security cooperation among countries with vastly different threat perceptions and alliance commitments. While Russia and Iran face Western sanctions, India maintains strategic partnerships with the US and European nations.

What This Means for Global Order

The "Will for Peace 2026" exercise may seem modest—just eight days of naval drills with an anodyne name. But it represents something larger: the first concrete step toward BRICS becoming more than an economic forum.

For Global South countries, this offers a potential alternative to choosing sides between the US and China. A BRICS security framework could provide multilateral cover for countries seeking to maintain strategic autonomy.

For Western policymakers, it's a reminder that the post-Cold War unipolar moment is definitively over. Even if BRICS doesn't become a formal military alliance, it's creating new facts on the ground that complicate Western strategic planning.

The exercise also reveals the messy reality of multipolarity. Unlike the bipolar Cold War, today's emerging order features multiple centers of power with overlapping and sometimes contradictory interests.

The answer may determine whether we're witnessing the birth of a new international system or simply the latest chapter in the eternal struggle for global influence.