Bitcoin Price Analysis: Down 22% in Worst Q4 Since 2018, Analysts Warn of Market Fatigue

Bitcoin is on track for its worst fourth-quarter performance since the 2018 bear market, with data from CoinGlass showing a decline of more than 22% so far. Despite a recent push toward the $90,000 mark providing a short-term lift, analysts are cautioning that the rebound reflects trader exhaustion rather than renewed conviction.

The total crypto market capitalization has once again surpassed the psychologically important $3 trillion level. However, Bitcoin remains approximately 30% below its 2025 peak, and the market continues to show vulnerability to sharp reversals, especially during U.S. trading hours.

A Market Running on Fumes

While major tokens like xrp, ether (ETH), Solana's SOL, and Cardano's ada saw modest gains of up to 2% in the past 24 hours, the underlying sentiment remains weak. In contrast, Aave's AAVE token was the worst performer, dropping 7% amid an ongoing governance dispute.

The crypto market is making a new attempt at growth, but this is not yet a recovery.

— Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, stated that the market's recent strength is largely technical. He noted that while the Fear and Greed Index has climbed to 25, suggesting traders are moving away from extreme pessimism, they are not yet embracing risk.

Historical Data Paints a Bearish Picture

Seasonal patterns reinforce this cautious outlook. According to CoinGlass data, the fourth quarter has historically delivered some of Bitcoin's strongest rallies. However, it has also produced sharp drawdowns in years marked by tightening liquidity and macroeconomic uncertainty, a theme that defines late 2025.

"Attempts to bring year-to-date performance back to zero are little consolation," Kuptsikevich added, highlighting that the optimism from earlier in the year has been replaced by disappointment.