Bitcoin Hits $68K But 'Extreme Fear' Persists for 20 Days

$68,000. Bitcoin is eyeing this level again after a 2% surge in 24 hours, scrambling back from earlier this month's selloff. Yet for all the price recovery, the market's mood remains frozen solid. The Fear and Greed Index has stayed locked in "extreme fear" territory for 20 straight days.

It's a peculiar disconnect that reveals something deeper about crypto markets in 2026.

The Numbers Tell Two Stories

André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, expects this sideways action to continue. "Apart from Covid, bitcoin doesn't usually show V-shaped recoveries after strong capitulations," he told CoinDesk. The pattern? Consolidation after crashes, not dramatic bounces.

But here's where it gets interesting. Prediction markets now place 80% odds on the U.S. Clarity Act passing this year. Ripple's Brad Garlinghouse goes further, seeing a 90% chance by April. That's regulatory clarity crypto has been begging for since 2017.

Bitwise's internal sentiment index? Neutral. Not fearful, not greedy—just waiting.

The Whale Warning

While retail sentiment stays pessimistic, large holders are making moves. CryptoQuant data shows bitcoin whales transferring coins to Binance at record levels. These transfers often signal selling intent, adding supply pressure just as prices try to recover.

It's classic crypto psychology: prices rise, but the smart money prepares exit strategies.

Macro Forces at Play

Today's U.S. Core PCE data could shift everything. A hotter-than-expected reading might trigger hawkish Fed reactions, strengthening the dollar and pressuring risk assets into the weekend. Yet Dragosch argues bitcoin remains "significantly undervalued" relative to global money supply and gold.

The recession narrative has certainly cooled. Odds dropped from over 40% in mid-2025 to just above 20% now. Global liquidity is expanding at 10%+ annually—historically not a backdrop for extended bitcoin bear markets.

The real question isn't whether bitcoin can hit $68K—it's whether sentiment can finally catch up to the story the data is telling.