印度對美出口飆升22%，專家警告：亮麗數據暗藏「提前出貨」危機
印度對美出口在2025年11月年增22%，數據亮眼。然而專家警告，這可能是企業為規避未來50%高額關稅而「提前出貨」的結果，潛藏貿易風險。
印度對美出口數據看似一片榮景，但專家們已敲響警鐘。根據最新數據，2025年11月印度對美出口年增率超過 22%，然而這驚人的增長，可能並非經濟實力使然，而是企業為規避未來高額關稅而採取的「提前出貨」策略，為未來埋下變數。
電子與石化產品引領增長
根據《日經》報導，印度對美國的出口額在9月份觸及 54.7億美元 的谷底後，迎來強勁反彈。其中，電子產品和石油產品是主要的增長動力。表面上看，這份成績單讓新德里在與華盛頓的貿易談判中，似乎掌握了更有利的籌碼。
榮景背後的兩大警訊
然而，專家們對此數據的解讀卻相當審慎。其一，2024年的比較基期較低，放大了增長幅度。其二，也是更大的隱憂，是企業可能為了應對美國未來可能祭出的 50% 懲罰性關稅，而將訂單「提前出貨」（front-loading）。此舉形同預支未來的出口額度，為當前的亮麗數據增添了不確定性。
投資人應密切關注美國的貿易政策動向。傳聞中高達50%的關稅一旦成真，將對仰賴美國市場的印度出口商造成巨大衝擊，全球供應鏈也將隨之震盪。
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