Marcos's Biggest Test: Can the Philippines Survive Its Year of Political Rupture?

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is winning accolades on the world stage for his firm stance against China, but back home, his presidency is facing its biggest challenge yet. A massive corruption scandal and a vicious political feud with Vice President Sara Duterte have shattered their 'unity government,' plunging the Philippines into a period of profound instability and triggering a powerful anti-corruption movement.

The crisis began with revelations of substandard flood control projects, which Marcos blamed on corruption. However, subsequent investigations uncovered a much wider problem, implicating contractors, top infrastructure officials, and lawmakers in the alleged misuse of 'pork barrel' funds. The situation escalated when some administration allies, themselves implicated, turned on the president, accusing Marcos of receiving kickbacks from anomalous projects—a charge he denies.

The Duterte political dynasty has faced its own series of severe blows. The family's patriarch, former President Rodrigo Duterte, was arrested on March 28 and has been in the custody of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, awaiting trial for his role in the bloody 'war on drugs.' Meanwhile, Vice President Sara Duterte was impeached by the House over alleged improper spending of confidential funds, though the Supreme Court later voided the move. Despite these setbacks, the Dutertes' political machine remains formidable; Sara Duterte continues to lead polls for the 2028 presidential election, and several candidates she backed won seats in the Senate midterm elections.

The implosion of the Marcos-Duterte alliance has energized opposition forces. Capitalizing on the corruption crisis that eroded public trust in Congress, several independent candidates defeated in 2022 secured victories in the midterm polls. A newly emergent anti-corruption movement has successfully organized massive protests across the country, demanding accountability.

Under immense public pressure, Marcos has shuffled his Cabinet and appealed to Congress for bold reforms, including livestreaming budget deliberations. Most significantly, he endorsed an anti-political dynasty bill. If passed, the law could theoretically disqualify incumbent officials—including members of the Marcos and Duterte families—from running for office again. Whether sincere or a political gambit, the move reflects the powerful public clamor for a reset.

The political turmoil is having real-world consequences. It has shaken investor confidence, threatening to weaken economic activity, particularly in the construction sector. The deep involvement of elected officials in the scandal has also fueled fears of military intervention, though both the presidential palace and military leaders have quickly dismissed such talk. Marcos's move earlier this month to raise the base pay for soldiers could be seen as a preemptive measure to ensure loyalty and head off any destabilization efforts. The year ahead will be critical. The corruption allegations against Marcos could lead to an impeachment complaint, further weakening his presidency. He has survived a tumultuous year, but the central question remains: can he hold on until his term ends in 2028?