烏克蘭戰事恐再延18個月，全球新火藥庫：委內瑞拉緊張局勢升溫
烏克蘭戰爭預計將再持續12至18個月，全球焦點之外，委內瑞拉與蘇丹等地緣政治風險正在升高。分析全球多點爆發的衝突背後有何關聯。
烏克蘭戰火未歇，有分析指出衝突可能再「拖延12至18個月」。當全球目光聚焦東歐之際，從拉丁美洲的委內瑞拉到非洲的蘇丹，新的地緣政治斷層線正悄然擴大，全球局勢山雨欲來。
陷入泥沼的東歐戰事
俄烏戰爭已演變為一場曠日持久的消耗戰。據報導，烏克兰正試圖透過擊殺俄羅斯將領等方式「製造恐懼」，凸顯了戰況的殘酷。與此同時，加薩地區的「黃線」據稱已成為「殺戮之地」，而蘇丹白尼羅州的局勢也顯示出「對法律的蔑視日益增加」，多地人道危機持續惡化，卻未能得到足夠關注。
美洲新爆點：委內瑞拉的雙面刃
在拉丁美洲，委內瑞拉的局勢正變得異常複雜。一方面，其龐大的石油儲備對美國具有戰略優勢；但另一方面，也有聲音認為，對美國而言，向委內瑞拉「宣戰」在政治上或許相當便利，使該國處於地緣政治的十字路口。
回顧過去，川普政府對委內瑞拉的政策被形容為「臨時起意且難以預測」，這也為未來美國的動向增添了更多不確定性，稍有不慎便可能引發區域衝突。
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