日本2026年度預算達122.3兆日圓再創新高，財政警鐘為誰而鳴？
日本政府批准2026年度預算草案，總額高達122.3兆日圓，再創歷史新高。社福與國防支出大增，加劇財政惡化擔憂。本文深入分析其對全球投資者的潛在影響。
122兆日圓的天文數字，再次敲響日本財政紀律的警鐘。日本政府於12月26日批准了2026會計年度總預算草案，一般會計總額高達122兆3092億日圓，不僅規模空前，更引發全球投資人對其財政可持續性的高度關注。
預算膨脹背後的推手
預算規模之所以失速膨脹，背後存在三大結構性因素。首先，隨著人口高齡化日益嚴重，社會保障相關支出持續攀升，成為財政最沉重的負擔。其次，為應對變幻莫測的國際局勢，防衛預算顯著增加。最後，用於償還舊債與支付利息的國債費用也水漲船高。這三大因素環環相扣，導致支出規模屢創新高，財政紀律面臨嚴峻考驗。
投資者無法忽視的財政風險
這份創紀錄的預算案，無疑是對市場信心的壓力測試。日本財政長期依賴發行新國債來彌補歲入缺口，此舉將使政府的債務雪球越滾越大。過去，日本央行（BOJ）的超寬鬆貨幣政策為國債市場提供了穩定基石。然而，在全球升息浪潮下，日本長期利率的上行風險已不容小覷。一旦利率走高，國債利息負擔將急遽加重，恐將日本財政推入惡性循環的深淵。
日本的財政狀況與貨幣政策動向，對國債價格、日圓匯率具有舉足輕重的影響。投資者應密切關注相關政策變化與市場反應，審慎評估風險。
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