日銀鷹派訊號對決GDP排名下滑：日本122兆日圓預算的政策豪賭
日本央行總裁植田和男暗示將持續升息，但日本人均名目GDP排名已跌至全球第24位。面對122兆日圓的龐大預算案，貨幣緊縮與財政擴張的政策矛盾，正將日本經濟推向一個充滿變數的十字路口。
日本央行釋出升息訊號，但經濟數據卻敲響警鐘。在日本政府於今日（12月26日）拍板高達122兆3100億日圓的年度預算案之際，貨幣緊縮與財政擴張的政策分歧日益顯著，正將2026年的日本經濟推向一個充滿變數的十字路口。
植田和男的鷹派訊號
日本銀行（日銀）總裁植田和男在12月25日表示，將「視未來經濟狀況考慮進一步升息」，再度重申貨幣政策正常化的堅定立場。此番言論被市場解讀為結束長期寬鬆時代的強烈信號，投資者正密切關注其升息的時機與幅度。
經濟數據的殘酷現實
然而，鷹派立場的背後，是令人擔憂的經濟數據。根據12月23日的報告，日本的人均名目GDP全球排名已從第22位滑落至第24位，主因直指持續疲軟的日圓。這凸顯了貨幣貶值正侵蝕國家實質經濟地位的窘境。與此同時，11月的消費者物價指數（CPI）年增率仍高達3.0%，持續的通膨壓力正不斷壓縮家庭的消費能力。
政府的122兆日圓財政擴張
面對此等經濟困境，日本政府選擇踩下財政「油門」。今日決定的新年度預算案總額高達122兆3100億日圓，旨在應對物價上漲並支持薪資成長。此舉無疑是為了支撐經濟景氣，卻與日銀意圖踩下貨幣「煞車」的緊縮政策背道而馳。這種政策的矛盾與對立，恐將為金融市場帶來劇烈動盪。
投資者應警惕，央行與政府的政策分歧可能導致日圓匯率劇烈波動，並引發長期利率上升的風險。未來日銀升息的步伐與力道，將是市場最關鍵的不確定因素。
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