日銀暗示升息、首相高市力推加薪：日本經濟迎向2026年十字路口
在日本首相高市早苗力促企業加薪之際，日本央行總裁植田和男暗示可能再度升息。本文分析政府與央行政策分歧下，日本經濟的現況與2026年的前景。
日本經濟正陷入一場微妙的拉鋸戰。首相高市早苗向企業界強力要求「薪資漲幅應超越通膨」，與此同時，日本銀行（日銀）總裁植田和男卻暗示了進一步升息的可能性。政府與央行釋出的不同訊號，恐將左右2026年日本經濟的最終走向。
政府主導的「加薪」攻勢
12月25日，首相高市早苗呼籲經團連（日本經濟團體連合會）合作，在明年的薪資談判中實現超越物價上漲的加薪幅度。此舉被視為政府意圖刺激個人消費、徹底擺脫通貨緊縮的堅定決心。此外，首相也表示目標是讓明年度預算案在年初的國會常會上儘早通過，凸顯其迅速執行經濟政策的態度。同日，她亦與日本維新會代表吉村洋文會談，確認在實現「副首都」構想上進行合作，展現出穩定執政基礎的意圖。
央行謹慎的貨幣緊縮
當政府踩下經濟成長的油門時，日銀似乎正準備踩下煞車。12月25日，總裁植田和男表示，「未來將視經濟狀況，持續研討升息」。這番言論再次表明了日銀在通膨持續的背景下，將穩步推進貨幣政策正常化的立場。即便薪資上漲，升息也可能帶來抑制經濟復甦的風險，使日銀面臨著艱鉅的挑戰。
通膨壓力與潛在挑戰
眼前，物價上漲的跡象在各領域已清晰可見。例如，今年11月民間企業的稻米進口量，較去年同期激增了13倍，暗示國內糧食價格存在潛在的上行壓力。此外，高額療養費制度的個人負擔上限額也將根據所得水準調高，家庭支出的增加似乎在所難免。在此背景下，三重縣開始研議自明年起停止錄用外國籍縣政府職員，此類舉措也可能牽動勞動市場的結構性變化。
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