A Long Winter Ahead: Russia-Ukraine War May 'Grind On for Another 12 to 18 Months'

A recent analysis suggests the Russia-Ukraine war could grind on for another 12 to 18 months, signaling a new phase of protracted attrition with global implications.

The war between Russia and Ukraine may “grind on for another 12 to 18 months,” according to a recent assessment. This forecast suggests the conflict has entered a protracted phase of attrition, with neither side positioned to achieve a decisive breakthrough in the near future.

The current battlefield dynamics are defined by a grinding stalemate, primarily across eastern and southern Ukraine. Russia continues to entrench its forces in occupied territories while probing for weaknesses, whereas Ukraine, bolstered by Western military aid, focuses on counter-offensives to reclaim its land. With neither side able to overwhelm the other, the forecast of another year or more of conflict reflects the entrenched reality on the ground.

A prolonged war will continue to place significant strain on the international community. Western nations face an ongoing challenge to sustain the flow of military and financial aid to Ukraine amid domestic pressures. Moreover, global economic uncertainty—driven by volatile energy prices, food security concerns, and disrupted supply chains—is likely to persist. It's widely believed that Russia's strategy hinges on outlasting Western resolve, hoping to create fractures within the transatlantic alliance.

PRISM Insight: The New Normal

A war lasting another year or more signals a hardening of geopolitical blocs. This conflict is less about a short-term crisis and more about a long-term structural confrontation between Russia and the West. The key variable is no longer if a breakthrough will occur, but whether Western political and industrial capacity can sustain Ukraine's defense in a prolonged war of attrition.

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