China’s Record 2025 Trade Surplus May Trigger a Protectionist Storm in 2026

A new report warns that China's record 2025 trade surplus could trigger global protectionism, complicating its economic growth targets for 2026 as export performance faces new headwinds.

While China has already logged a record-breaking trade surplus in the first 11 months of 2025, that milestone could be a harbinger of more protectionist pushback, an American research firm said on Monday. This development could complicate the country’s efforts to meet its economic growth target in 2026.

According to the firm's analysis, export performance remains the “most important” variable for China's real economic growth rate next year. However, the sheer size of the surplus risks antagonizing trading partners, potentially leading to new trade measures that could curb China's export momentum.

The challenge is twofold. Beyond the threat of retaliatory trade policies, the report also highlights that weaker global demand will add another layer of pressure on China's export-oriented economy. Beijing, it seems, may face headwinds from both political and economic fronts.

PRISM Insight: This forecast highlights a central dilemma for China's economic strategy. The reliance on exports to fuel short-term growth paradoxically increases its long-term vulnerability to geopolitical friction and trade disputes. For 2026, the key challenge for policymakers will be managing external trade relationships while simultaneously strengthening domestic demand to build a more resilient economic foundation.

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