VanEck Predicts Bitcoin Will Be 2026's Top Performer After 50% Lag in 2025

Why is a major asset manager buying one of the year's most disappointing assets? Global investment firm VanEck is betting on a massive comeback for Bitcoin in 2026, even after it underperformed both tech stocks and gold throughout 2025. The firm's thesis rests on accelerating currency devaluation, which it expects will drive a flight to scarce, hard assets.

A Tale of Two Years: 2025 Lag, 2026 Lead

In its recently published 2026 outlook, VanEck noted that Bitcoin has lagged the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index by roughly 50% year-to-date. But David Schassler, the firm's head of multi-asset solutions, argued that this very dislocation is "setting it up to be a top performer in 2026." He added bluntly, "We have been buying."

The Thesis: Debasement and the Rise of Hard Assets

Schassler's broader thesis centers on what he calls monetary debasement. He argues that governments will increasingly rely on money printing to fund future liabilities, pushing investors toward scarce stores of value like gold and Bitcoin. "As debasement ramps, liquidity returns, and BTC historically responds sharply," Schassler wrote, explaining that while 2025's weakness reflects a softer risk appetite, the long-term case for Bitcoin remains intact.

This view is supported by gold's impressive run this year. The yellow metal is up over 70% in 2025, currently trading around $4,492 per ounce. VanEck expects that momentum to carry forward, forecasting a surge to $5,000 in 2026.

AI Fueling 'Old-World Assets'

VanEck also highlights a "quiet bull market" in natural resources. The firm believes the infrastructure demands of artificial intelligence (AI), energy transitions, and re-industrialization are creating sustained demand for what Schassler calls "old-world assets," which are building the foundation for the new economy.