Dollar Hits 3-Month Low, But Bitcoin Misses The Rally Fueled by Greenback's Slide
The U.S. dollar index is near a 3-month low, sending gold and copper to record highs. But Bitcoin isn't following, raising questions about its safe-haven narrative amidst diverging central bank policies.
The U.S. dollar is teetering near a three-month low, fueling a record-breaking surge in gold and other hard assets. However, Bitcoin is conspicuously absent from the party, stuck in a bearish trend that defies the typical market reaction to a weakening greenback.
A Tale of Two Markets: Hard Assets Soar, Crypto Stumbles
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), a measure of the dollar's strength against other major currencies, continued its decline on Tuesday. It's now trading just above a crucial long-term support level that stretches back to the 2008 global financial crisis.
As expected, the dollar's weakness has been a powerful tailwind for tangible assets. Gold, silver, and copper all surged to new record highs on Tuesday. Yet, this classic market dynamic hasn't helped Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto markets, which have been mired in a brutal bear move since October. This is a stark contrast to the first half of 2025, when stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all rose in tandem with the dollar's initial drop.
Diverging Monetary Policies Pressure the Dollar
The dollar's decline is being driven by a growing divergence in global monetary policy. While several foreign central banks, including the Bank of Japan, are moving toward tighter policy, the U.S. Federal Reserve faces mounting pressure from President Donald Trump to lower interest rates.
This raises the possibility that the dollar could decisively break below its major support line. While the weak dollar has so far failed to lift Bitcoin, some traders believe a breach of that long-term support could be the catalyst that finally reverses crypto's downtrend.
The current decoupling is a major test for Bitcoin's core narrative as "digital gold" and a hedge against dollar debasement. This price action suggests investors are currently treating Bitcoin more like a high-risk tech asset than a safe-haven commodity. How Bitcoin reacts if the dollar's 2008 support line breaks could validate or invalidate this narrative for years to come.
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